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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It frequently serves as a form of mea culpa. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest upset.

But the current race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with reigning conference winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. During an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in such a turbulent and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love signal-callers. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. In the right system, the QB has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of freelancing. It is an attack built solely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who entered the building with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no guarantees. Somehow, he has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

In a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However Johnson comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the leadership aspects, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more.

The results are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still