Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
